Sunday, January 10, 2016

The New Jobs Economy


1) WSJ: The Bleak Reality Driving Trump’s Rise

Workers with low or middle incomes sense a deep and alarming economic shift.
WILLIAM A. GALSTON Dec. 15, 2015 6:17 p.m. ET

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-bleak-reality-driving-trumps-rise-1450221431

Be­neath the dry sta­tistics of the lat­est re­port from the Bu­reau of La­bor Sta­tistics, we can see that fu­ture emerg­ing. Over the next decade, the ser­vice sec­tor will pro­vide 95% of all the new jobs. Man­u­fac­tur­ing, which shed more than two mil­lion jobs be-tween 2004 and 2014, will shrink by an ad­di­tional 800,000, to only 7% of the work­force. Of the 15 oc­cu­pa­tions with the most pro­jected job growth, only four ask for a bach­e­lor’s de­gree; eight re­quire no for­mal ed­u­ca­tion cre-den­tials; nine offer me­dian an­nual wages un­der $30,000.


2) NYT: The Machines Are Coming

SundayReview | CONTRIBUTING OP-ED WRITER

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/19/opinion/sunday/the-machines-are-coming.html


But computers do not just replace humans in the workplace. They shift the balance of power even more in favor of employers. Our normal response to technological innovation that threatens jobs is to encourage workers to acquire more skills, or to trust that the nuances of the human mind or human attention will always be superior in crucial ways. But when machines of this capacity enter the equation, employers have even more leverage, and our standard response is not sufficient for the looming crisis.

Machines aren’t used because they perform some tasks that much better than humans, but because, in many cases, they do a “good enough” job while also being cheaper, more predictable and easier to control than quirky, pesky humans. Technology in the workplace is as much about power and control as it is about productivity and efficiency.



3) Slaves to the Database

In this "required reading" for all young people, the author touches on many of the issues surrounding the still-looking-for-the-right-name "sharing economy," but doesn't make any particular conclusion. 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/would-you-pay-bit-more-have-someone-pick-up-your-shirts-jared-burden 
He ends by just asking if it would be a possible solution if we all just pay a bit more for these uberesque services... to bring the workers up to the standard of regular employees. To me this article merely shows that there are so many interwoven issues in the Uber/Airbnb/Amazon Turk phenomenon and it's a question of framing the issues before we can even flame one another with sufficiently web-worthy invective.


4) Employment Is Uber, I Mean Over

I try to tell my kids that they need to think of "income streams" not "getting a job." Liz Ryan makes my point:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/wake-up-smell-coffee-employment-over-liz-ryan?articleId=6040893837616963584#comments-6040893837616963584&trk=prof-post 


5) Kids, Read this Book: Crowdfunding

One of the most amazing things going on right now is that you can damn-near invent anything or create your own company just by using your friends... or a few hundred of them you can manage to herd together on the web. But you're not ready! Yes, you read right. This book tells you to spend a year cultivating a following. So read the book if only to learn that one prep step.

http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25509389-a-crowdfunder-s-strategy-guide

6) Soon, We'll All Be Retiring at 50! Woohoo, Right?  

Uh, not exactly. This great article breaks out the major factors at play in the employment world, and gives some no-fluff recommendations to survive the brave new world.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dear-people-your-20s-30s-youd-better-preparing-50-len-kendall?trk=pulse-det-nav_art

Saturday, November 14, 2015

First Annual "Sexting Denial-Of-Excitement Day": December 31, 2015

The last time I risked watching the local news, I couldn't watch long enough to get past an endless stream of stories of sexting scandals, first from local high-school cyberbullies, and then, if I got it right, from a Secret Service agent who moonlights as an online pornographer.  The adult activities, while offensive, have always occurred, but now have the added phenomenon of the Internet's elephantine memory.  The kids' activities though, are a whole new world and have wreaked havoc among many young lives as our kids learn the perils and pitfalls of a world where cameras are omnipresent and concealable. Previous generations never had this challenge as kids. And the results are much more damaging than in our times.

There's no turning back; there's no making it go away. Is there a pinky-ring camera yet on Indiegogo? Well there should be. How can you get through the day without photographing your knuckles and, lest you leave it on at an inopportune time, the inside of you nose. And it should have voice-stress analysis for instant lie detection when your boss does your next face-to-face review. And live streaming to your personal Youtube channel. But I digress.

So I'm suggesting a radical remedy to save our kids from just one small injustice of the wonderful technology we've assaulted them with: the first Annual "Sexting Denial-Of-Excitement Day," December 31, 2015. Everyone get out those cameras and take a picture of some genitalia and post it everywhere. Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, you name it.  Get professional on LinkedIn. Who doesn't think about sex at work? And no Amazon book review is complete without illustration.

You don't have to photograph a real person, let alone yourself... unless you're into advertising and marketing.  There's some great sculpture out there to photograph. Consider David in Florence. Or find some books or magazines; use your imagination people. Or get some stills from your favorite celebrity sex tape.  (I still don't know what that is, a 'tape': I know what a celebrity is and I know what sex is.) And let's not leave any stones unturned, where room for new titillation is left with unexposed parts. Include some assholes. No, not Donald Trump. I'm outrageous and inventive but not cruel. I mean real sphincters, but let's be clean, people. Get them from medical tomes where the work is professional and properly lit.

And let's do some serious Photoshopping, too and get the whole mess over with on Version 1. Let's not make a beta testicle of this. Picture those three-slice pictures with one person's face, another's torso, and well... you're with me, right? We live in a world where no vulgarity is too profane for the seat beside you on the train... no obscenity too extreme even for a sports broadcast... no offense too cruel even for a national election race. So let's get the last true morsel of all the privacy we once thought inalienable, and put it on display. Maybe some nice advertiser could devote some of their electronic billboards to stream the best-of-the-worst. Gosh, how we all love a new paradigm!

And why, you might ask, December 31st? Well, has any useful work ever occurred on this day? And on New Year's Day, we'll all have as much excitement as toddlers under the Christmas tree... for one and only one year. Hopefully next year, the excitement will be gone. And so will the value to the school bully of posting embarrassing pictures of their classmates.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Newletter #1 Technology

1

Every day it takes fewer people to produce the same amount of goods and services.
This one inescapable and incontestable fact is dominating our era and is at the root of all our other problems. All other factors, however contributory, are merely that—contributors, not sources.

***

In their quest to solve science's biggest mystery, namely the various forces that explain the interactions between matter, scientists seek a single explanation... a so-called 'unified force.' That's because it is illogical that multiple explanations exist for what seems so obvious—to some at least—to be a single problem. And so it is with the great socio-economic problems of our time: increasing income disparity, unabated poverty, under-employment of the middle class, whole countries on the brink of financial collapse, and troubling if not outrightly untenable costs for healthcare and college, not to mention a US national debt figure that stretches credulity.

If you're wondering why we are stuck in this endless cycle of bad financial news, the answer has been in front of us for about 40 years: the increasing pace of technology. Study any problem, not just financial ones, but the gamut of modern ills from gun violence to overpopulation, and while many factors may come into play, at the root you will always find technology as the enabling source.

Back in the '70's the news focused on automation taking jobs, but for some reason it's as if we're now surprised at the way it's played out. Yet it's clear that human labor will be replaced by new efficiencies until all remnants of the last 100 years' work world are gone. And this is likely to occur in increasingly larger waves, despite the comforting allure of the intervening troughs. Consider, for instance one of the most likely upcoming waves of disruption, as the dot-com folks like to euphomize it: when email reaches its full potential, about 300,000 letter carriers in the US Postal Service alone will no longer having jobs. After that telecomm will lose another tier of labor as Wi-Fi becomes ubiquitous. And when younger technologists finally become tomorrow's politicians, perhaps tax simplification (irrespective of being flat or progressive) will translate into tens of thousands of fewer IRS and street-corner accounting jobs. Against this backdrop many are convinced that this is merely tiresome, misguided hysteria that "the sky is falling," and that technology gives as much as it takes. Those are the people who have well-paying jobs, and generally in the professions well treated by technology, media pundits first-and-foremost. A more likely appraisal is that technology gives back one new job for every ten it takes.

To solve any problem you need an explanation—a mental model—that correctly assesses the circumstances. To figure out where the jobs will be you need to figure out wealth and its distribution. Wealth is the sum of the necessities, niceties, and healthiness that a society enjoys. Trust me, it's not as complicated as some might suggest. It's a certainty that we are producing wealth faster and in greater volume than it's ever been produced.

Distribution is more subtle, and of course, contentious. Ever since the hunter-gather days,when wealth was distributed evenly—if sparsely—among everyone, society has been on a relentless progression, through the agrarian culture, to the industrial age... in which successful individuals have ever-increasing ability to accumulate—concentrate—wealth. And, despite the recent arguing about "you didn't make that" (in reference to the business owner not creating the publicly funded infrastructure that enables their wealth accumulation), even the hardest working individuals don't have the work capacity to create the wealth of 100,000 people.

Technology has always been the lever in this equation. It estimated that in 1900 an American farmer could feed 25 people; today that number is around 1,000. But that figure might be from before tractors were guided by GPS and could plow a field without a driver.... at night... with optimal fuel consumption... at exactly the right time that the weather calls for... without overlapping its path at all...

Until recently, it's true that the jobs that were displaced were replaced in time. But that process is no longer able to take up the slack. A recent story in the New York Times magazine epitomized the relationship between wealth concentration and technology. The story told of devious stock trading companies surreptitiously undercut the rest of the investors—pension funds and day traders alike—by detecting trades before they are executed on a slower exchange and buying or selling a millisecond beforehand on their own exchange, a so-called 'dark pool' trade. (Never mind that this shouldn't even be possible, that's another story.) Despite the duplicity of it, that is the state in which we now exist: genuine work might not be completely detached from the genuine creation of wealth, but it is absolutely unnecessary for its accumulation and  concentration. By a recent account, half of the world's wealth is now owned by 85 people. We've all heard the statistics.

Problems that take many years to create aren't solved in months. But most of this problem has occurred in 50 years, not really 500. And, on the plus side, we don't by any measure have a shortage of wealth. Technology is creating wealth faster than even Americans can consume it. But what to do?

Adjustments could be made on many fronts, such as energy policy, healthcare, and education, but let's examine just the financial front. We need to mitigate the employment shock waves of the upcoming technology tsunamis with laws that balance corporate and personal interests. Plain-and-simple, this means "progressive taxation." And if the concentration of wealth is such that one person possesses the wealth of 42 million people, then the rate of "progression" has to be equivalently steep.

Most reasonable people inherently find laws that force redistribution of wealth to be troublesome. Progressive tax rates simply feed the governance machine that is just as self-perpetuating as the stock manipulators. Left to its own, government can't stop itself, as evidenced so gloriously by America's Congress, which doesn't have to live by the laws it decrees or the taxes it levies.

Possibly the best hope, more effective than a minimum wage law (which solves so little), is to enact laws that limit top executive total compensation—no-loopholes for stocks—to a multiple of the lowest paid employee. This still allows unfettered capitalism because it does not put an absolute limit on anyone's ability to concentrate wealth; it simply forces them to bring others along with them. Imagine even a multiple limit of 100: if an executive makes $10 million per year, the lowest paid employee must get $100,000. Or how about a hybrid? (Hybrids always win, by the way.) The portion of executive salary below the 100 multiple is taxed at X percent; the portion of an executive's salary above the 100 multiple is taxed at 2X percent. Now consider non-profit companies, such as the National Football League. To get the benefit of not sharing as much of their revenue with the public as a for-profit company does, shouldn’t the executive income multiple be lower… perhaps 10 times the lowest paid employee? Shouldn't such a law be easy to enact for non-profits?

The wonderful engine of corporate America is only that—our engine. It must be balanced by choices we make: choosing activities that produce truly long-term wealth and avoid its ungoverned concentration, and basing decisions on sustainability instead of growth. There is no question that, unabated, our businesses will continue to merge until there is one database, one human resources department, one CEO, one Board of Directors, one set of warehouses, one railroad, and one employee... or pretty close to it. Technology is the only root cause. It is neither evil nor good and there is no stopping it, nor should stopping it be any sort of goal. But it forces us to choose, not simply watch its effects ignorantly, powerlessly, and selfishly. And if we don’t choose the right balance between concentrating and distributing forces, technology will drive our children off a cliff.

Saturday, April 25, 2015

8 Small Problems that Indicate American Leadership Is Broken

America has big problems. Take your choice... from poverty, wars we can't leave, unaffordable healthcare, policemen shooting citizens in the back, or long lines at Starbucks. And we no more expect our politicians to move these societal mountains than to wipe away the drought plaguing California. Whether you blame 200-year old laws that were intentionally designed to govern (as in 'limit') not the citizens but the lawmakers (brilliant!), or selfish infighting of the current lawmakers is a debate that won't be undertaken here. But a look at our smaller problems—those we should able to solve—reveals a troubling situation: a complete paralysis of our leadership system. Let's start with the easiest, least debatable.

Number 8: The metric system.

If Benjamin Franklin, one of our founding fathers and world's greatest scientists, were alive today to see that the US clings to the non-scientific measurement system of his era he would be appalled and embarrassed. Today, we are with only Liberia and Myanmar in not adopting the metric system. This is the first item on our list because it would not cost a single penny nor call for a single tax increase for the change to be made. All that is required is a declaration that schools and business are to use only the metric system, and that all government purchases and products will be in metric... not in 10 years... now. No laws or fines or punishments are needed. We can suffer with the occasional transition pains, even mixed highway signs. Contrary to the predictable naysayers' nonsense about all the conversion 'costs,' the transition will work quite the contrary. As soon as the declaration is made, a fire will be lit under all sorts of businesses as all of our signage and printing of every sort is redone. With any such change that is both across-the-board and promotes efficiency, increased business activity only increases our collective wealth. So-called leaders who "don't know what a meter is" shall be given one-way tickets to any vacation spot in the world, as long as it's Liberia or Myanmar.

Number 7: Adopt-a-Highway. Many states now promote programs that leave the cleaning of our roads to the citizens. Do you have to be a technological genius to understand how stupid it is to have individuals cleaning roadsides with their hands, rather than using the best machines that money can buy? A single industrial vacuum truck can do the work of 1,000 people, and almost certainly consume fewer resources, from food to fossil fuels and even medicine for backaches. This is not a job for humans, whether professional road cleaners, prisoners in a chain gang, or office workers conscripted by their employer and pretending to help their community. If you can't understand this logic, you are part of the problem, not the solution. And you certainly are not fit to lead.

Number 6: Sales tax on the Internet.

The Internet is now a routine and vital portion of commerce. It's time to stop pretending that commerce done through it somehow is invisible or needs to be given special advantage, let alone subsidized. If sales taxes are a vital portion of virtually all states' means of providing public infrastructure, then let's stop the charade and collect sales tax wherever those businesses use that infrastructure to enrich their owners.

Number 5: The Non-Profit NFL.

You've probably heard by now that the NFL, one of the most profitable organizations in the world, at about $1 billion profit per year, gets non-profit tax benefits. The origin of that status might have been valid, but the current state constitutes corrupt theft from the citizens as a whole, sanctioned by those we elected to protect our interests. I suspect they get free Superbowl tickets; would you bet me against that? Solving this problem gets to the matter of one of our hard problems, inequality. While the simple solution is to take away the NFL's non-profit status, the authentic solution is more difficult... much more difficult. We need to change the rules that qualify an organization as non-profit, and the only way is this rule: the highest-remunerated person (whether CEO, board member, congressman, or former-politician-guest-speaker) from non-profit proceeds cannot have a total compensation of more than 10 times that of any other employee... no loopholes, not even for contracted employees. Notice that this puts no limit on any of the Roger Goodells of the world; the NFL janitor will merely have to get $4M per year. Or they simply pay the same taxes toward public infrastructure as any other profitable company.

Number 4: States competing to woo companies.

Whether it's giving tax breaks and free land to car companies to choose which state to locate in, or New Jersey  Governor Christie giving a quarter-billion-dollar tax reimbursement to the now bankrupt Revel casino, this insanity must stop. Yes, competition is generally the engine that makes our country so strong, but if our tax structures are wrong, change them; don't negotiate away the citizens' tax dollars in special deals that give away the house and generally seem to fall short.

Number 3: Spam mail, computer viruses, credit card fraud, and marketing robocalls.

OK, these are more technically difficult to remedy, especially with the offshore element of Internet problems, but modernized laws with real teeth would be a good first step. Must we really have computers that don't have to at least identify the provider/manufacturer of every bit of code running on them, revealing the intruders by omission??? And the vast majority of what's called 'identity theft' is actually just credit card fraud that we refuse to get tough on; if we had real competition in the credit industry, we'd be able to get services from companies that don't tolerate—subsidize actually—the fraud. They'd do this by using more secure cards and supporting 'purchase tiers' that depend on the security and amount of the transaction type (face-to-face/phone/Web).

Number 2: Teachers buying their students' schools supplies.

We talk a lot about inequality these days, and the selfish moralists like to paint it as a complaint of the under-motivated and irresponsible. But let's try a different yardstick for measuring an unequal distribution of our country's wealth. Perhaps like me, you know a schoolteacher who's said they have to chip in to pay for school supplies for their class (or worse, have their students bring in things like tissues for extra credit), in this, the wealthiest country in the history of the world. Apple, a company grown by the American educational system, has about $180 billion in cash right now. Just the interest on that would pay for all the K-12 school supplies in the US, about $50 per student for 50 million students. How's that for inequality? All those under-motivated, irresponsible K-12ers. Not unequal enough for you? I have a better one.

Number 1: Unsupported soldiers.

However any of us feel about our endless wars, our philosophical differences go out the window as soon as the injured soldiers come home. That we are in such a state where private charities have arisen to fill the gap on treating and housing wounded soldiers is an utterly inexcusable crime by all of us, but we have little alternative to holding our national leaders responsible. They should have to work from either prison or a VA hospital until every soldier is well-cared for. I don't blame the rich for having their riches, but consider that we have thousands in our country with previously unimaginable wealth, and the poster children, the Walton family with the wealth of at least 25% of Americans... all while returning soldiers are homeless and under-treated. Is that unequal enough for you? Is 'redistribution' of some of that wealth to those soldiers still a dirty word?

Leadership is about taking people ONLY where they do not want to go or don't know to go. Nothing else. It is not about speeches or celebrations or spending or advice or even negotiation; those are merely typical adjuncts of a leader's role. Our leadership system is broken because our leaders are not taking us where we need to go. I added the word 'system' to acknowledge that the problem is not about the individuals. The system is us, all of us. We have the leadership we deserve; we bought and paid for it. But we must fix it. Many of our problems, large and small, are deeply related to the pace of technological change. That pace of change means that the only solution for America's leadership problem right now is term limits.

***

Technology Shifts Balance of Power to...

A recent article by Zeynep Tufekci in the New York Times The Machines Are Coming provides a critical morsel in explaining the tidal wave of impact that technology has on jobs:
"But computers do not just replace humans in the workplace. They shift the balance of power even more in favor of employers. Our normal response to technological innovation that threatens jobs is to encourage workers to acquire more skills, or to trust that the nuances of the human mind or human attention will always be superior in crucial ways. But when machines of this capacity enter the equation, employers have even more leverage, and our standard response is not sufficient for the looming crisis."

The effect of jobs being automated has been clear, but understanding where the power moves to is key to dealing with the problem. The author also has a nice counter to the boilerplate response we've been hearing a lot lately:
"Optimists insist that we’ve been here before, during the Industrial Revolution, when machinery replaced manual labor, and all we need is a little more education and better skills. But that is not a sufficient answer. One historical example is no guarantee of future events, and we won’t be able to compete by trying to stay one step ahead in a losing battle."
 ***

Saturday, December 06, 2014

In a Wall Street Journal article Oct. 14, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/articles/william-galston-countering-techs-damaging-effect-on-jobs-1413328435
William Galston reported a perfect synopsis of the overarching factor driving the employment world of the future:

A recent special report by the Economist magazine offers a disturbing answer to this question. The report’s author, Ryan Avent, assembles an impressive array of evidence for the proposition that advances in information and communications technology are destroying more jobs in advanced economies than the advances are creating. Two Oxford scholars, Carl Benedict Frey and Michael Osborne, recently concluded that 47% of employment in America “is at high risk of being automated away” over the next two decades. Computer-driven technological change, which began by reducing the labor required for mass production, is now hollowing out the job market, for even routine legal and accounting tasks.
***

Thursday, October 30, 2014

The Only Way ...


"It is possible to fail in many ways...while to succeed is possible only in one way." —Aristotle, smart Greek guy (384 BC - 322 BC)

I don't know if Aristotle is right, but I know the only way...
  1. ... to even begin to combat American obesity is to legislate that food manufacturers list the percentage of the top three product ingredients, with all sugars combined.
  2. ... for Americans to reduce the high price of their college system is to separate instruction from testing, so competition can get back to honest work.
  3. ... to reduce concussions among school-age soccer players is to eliminate heading the ball; leave it to pros.
  4. ... reduce concussions in hockey is to create the same player-held (!) stigma against hits directly to the head, or head to boards, that players have for kneeing.
  5. ... reduce concussions in football is to create the same stigma as in hockey and make the helmets much lighter so they are not protecting the concussing player's head and neck with their momentum.
  6. ... for Americans to reduce the high price of their healthcare is to enforce practices that cause the pricing to be visible.
  7. ... for Americans to reduce the high cost of their healthcare is to separate health insurance from employers' involvement, so that all market forces get properly realigned.
  8. ... to provide tax revenue to pay to maintain societal infrastructure in an Internet-enabled, remote-control world is to collect taxes based on the proportional use of the infrastructure... in other words, increased reliance on sales taxes.
  9. ... to stop the large-scale gaming of the stock market by manipulative timing advantages of high-speed traders is to tax profits from same-day buy and sell orders at 100%, in other words, eliminate day-trading and high-speed trading.
  10. ... to control insider trading of stocks is to eliminate the advantage of inside information, by limiting large sales (over $10,000?) to 20% per month before profits are taxed at 100%.
  11. ... to prevent identity fraud is to stop pretending it's identity fraud and start calling the vast majority of it credit card fraud so that we hold the right companies accountable.
  12. ... to provide the slightest immediate countermeasure against data hacking is to legislate that all electronic systems that store individuals' data—even social security numbers—must be reinforced by PIN numbers and email alerts on usage. Data will still be stolen but consumers can stop the bleeding when notified.
  13. ... to enable police work to catch up to street crime is to change from policing after-the-fact to policing by 'swarm' coverage, meaning blanketing surveillance of hotspots before crime occurs.
  14. ... to properly use the United States' second windfall of fossil fuels—the shale oil and gas freed by fracking and horizontal drilling—is to split the bounty evenly between three uses: ultra-long-term military reserves, fueling the construction of our long-term sustainable energy infrastructure, and short-term energy.
  15. ... to supply our near-term energy demands without choking ourselves to death is to build and manage nuclear reactors, ideally small modular reactors if feasible.
  16. ... to reduce gun killings caused by the mismatch of the Second Amendment to modern-day America is to accept the fact that the founding fathers couldn't possibly foresee 200 years into a future where technology lets an individual kill by the dozens in seconds, and let each state determine its own gun rights. Metropolitan states will start to get control, and gun lovers can move to states where guns are valued.
  17. ... to solve the relentless trajectory of financial inequality is to legislate not minimum wages, but 'maximum multiples' ... of total compensation for highest-paid employees: a multiple of 100 at 'for-profits' and 20 at non-profits. This would put no absolute limit on staggering wealth.
  18. ... to return to the quality level of US leadership originally crafted by its founders is to institute term limits on all levels of government.
  19. ... to create stability int the Middle East is to let them fight it out for themselves.
  20. ... to save the planet from mankind is to get our population back to 2 billion. If you think it's important now, imagine how important it will be in about 30 years when we figure out how to stop cancer, and its opposite, aging.
We live in the most exciting times imaginable. The rate of change is staggering. Mankind is being connected like never before. And our understanding and control of nature is tantalizingly close to completion. But each step forward seems to be joined by missteps and pitfalls, as if there's no progress at all... or worse, that we're doomed to trudge in the same ruts in perpetuity. This is a logical result of one fact: we live on a finite globe, wondrous and plentiful in many ways, fragile and unforgiving in others. It's well within our power to solve these problems.

Saturday, March 22, 2014

Your Job Is Optional




Elevator Pitch– 29 Words

The problem of income inequality has many contributing factors but only one root cause: Every day it takes fewer people to produce the same amount of goods and services.

Letter-to-the-Editor – 175 Words

The problem of income inequality has many contributing factors but only one root cause: technology. The prevailing and inescapable phenomenon of our age is this: every day it takes fewer people to produce the same amount of goods and services. Whether you’re a college student wondering where the jobs are, a parent wondering why college costs a quarter-million dollars, or someone who can’t afford healthcare despite working two jobs and being accurately and ironically described as “underemployed,” all of these problems grow from the same tree. Only technology has the power to concentrate wealth as it is doing all across the globe. Yes, it distributes wealth but not nearly as much. If you are among the winners, you might have worked hard but possibly, hardly at all. And the waves of unemployment will continue in increasingly tumultuous peaks amidst falsely reassuring troughs until all remnants of the industrial age are gone. We must act to balance the benefits of technology against its effect on the overall populous or only time will tell the new outcome.

One-Page Essay

Why College Graduates Don't Have Enough Jobs: Wealth and Distribution in the Age of Automation
Every day it takes fewer people to produce the same amount of goods and services.
This one inescapable fact is dominating our era and is at the root of all our other financial problems. All other factors, however contributory, are merely that—contributors, not sources.

If you're wondering why we are stuck in an endless cycle of high unemployment, the answer has been in front of us for about 40 years: the increasing pace of technology. Study any problem, not just jobs, but the gamut of modern ills from gun violence to overpopulation, and while many factors may come into play, at the root you will always find technology as the enabling source. And if you somehow haven't heard the financial news from other struggling countries, the problem is not unique to the US. 

Back in the '70's the news focused on automation taking jobs, but for some reason it's as if we're now surprised at the way it's played out. Yet it's clear that human labor will be replaced by new efficiencies until all remnants of the last 100 years' work world are gone. And this is likely to occur in increasingly larger waves.The most likely upcoming wave is the Postal Service. After that telecomm will lose another tier of labor as Wi-Fi becomes ubiquitous. And when younger technologists finally become tomorrow's politicians, perhaps tax simplification will translate into tens of thousands of fewer IRS jobs.

To solve any problem you need an explanation—a mental model—that correctly assesses the circumstances. To figure out where the jobs are you need to figure out wealth and its distribution. Wealth is the sum of the necessities, niceties, and healthiness that a society enjoys. (It's not that complicated.) Distribution is more subtle. Ever since the hunter-gather days,when wealth was distributed evenly—if sparsely—among everyone, society has been on a relentless progression, through the agrarian culture, to the industrial age... in which individuals have ever-increasing ability to accumulate—concentrate—wealth.

Technology has always been the lever in the equation. It estimated that in 1900 an American farmer could feed 25 people; today that number is around 1,000. Until recently, the jobs that were displaced were replaced in time. But that process is no longer able to take up the slack. A recent story in the New York Times magazine epitomized the relationship between wealth concentration and technology: devious trading companies surreptitiously undercut the rest of the people in the market by detecting trades before they are executed on a slower exchange and buying or selling a millisecond beforehand. (Never mind that it shouldn't even be possible, that's another story.) Despite the duplicity of it, that is the state in which we now exist: genuine work isn't completely detached from the genuine creation of wealth, but it is absolutely unnecessary for its accumulation and  concentration. By a recent account, half of the world's wealth is now owned by 85 people.

Problems that take many years to create aren't solved in months. But most of this problem has occurred in 50 years, not really 500. And, on the plus side, we don't by any measure have a shortage of wealth. Technology is creating wealth faster than even Americans can consume it. But what to do?

Adjustments could be made on many fronts, such as energy policy, healthcare, and education, but let's examine just the financial front. We need to mitigate the employment shock waves of the upcoming technology tsunamis with laws that balance corporate and personal interests. Plain-and-simple, this means "progressive taxation." And if the concentration of wealth is such that one person possesses the wealth of 42 million people, then the rate of "progression" has to be equivalently steep.

Possibly the best hope, more effective than a minimum wage law, is to enact laws that limit top executive total compensation—no-loopholes for stocks—to a multiple of the lowest paid employee. This still allows unfettered capitalism because it does not put an absolute limit on anyone's ability to concentrate wealth; it simply forces them to bring others along with them. Imagine even a multiple limit of 100: if an executive makes $10 million per year, the lowest paid employee would be $100,000. Or how about a hybrid? (Hybrids always win, by the way.) The portion of executive's salary below the 100 multiple is taxed at X percent; that portion of an executive's salary above the 100 multiple is taxed at 2X percent. Now consider non-profit companies, such as the National Football League. To get the benefit of not sharing as much of their revenue with the public as a profit company does, shouldn’t the executive income multiple be lower… perhaps 10 times the lowest paid employee? Shouldn't such a law be easy to enact for non-profits?

The wonderful engine of corporate America is only that—our engine. It must be balanced by choices we make: choosing activities that produce truly long-term wealth and avoid its ungoverned concentration, and basing decisions on sustainability instead of growth. If we don’t choose the right balance, technology will drive our children off a cliff.

Essay – 4,700 Words

Why College Graduates Don't Have Enough Jobs: Wealth and Distribution in the Age of Automation
Every day it takes fewer people to produce the same amount of goods and services.
This one inescapable fact is dominating our era and is at the root of all our other financial problems. All other factors, however contributory, are merely that—contributors, not sources.

If you're wondering why we are stuck in an endless cycle of high unemployment, the answer has been in front of us for about 40 years: the increasing pace of technology. Study any problem, not just jobs, but the gamut of modern ills from gun violence to overpopulation, and while many factors may come into play, at the root you will always find technology as the enabling source. And if you somehow haven't heard the financial news from other struggling countries, the problem is not unique to the US. 

Back in the '70's the news focused on automation taking jobs, but for some reason it's as if we're now surprised at the way it's played out. Yet it's clear that human labor will be replaced by new efficiencies until all remnants of the last 100 years' work world are gone. And this is likely to occur in increasingly larger waves. For instance, when we are finally forced to stop moving mail by burning fossil fuels, look for a few hundred thousand jobs—and not just government mail carriers—to be "made redundant" as the corporate euphemists would phrase it. After that, perhaps education will be the next and larger wave. It could be from kids learning much faster from tablet computers, or from completely universalized testing and accreditation on the Web. If you're inclined to think that education is immune to the phenomenon of job loss from automation—and maybe you're right that it's more resistant than other sectors—then let's move on to telecommunications: as soon as Wi-Fi is ubiquitous, young people will have completely abandoned traditional phone service, and thousands more telecomm customer service jobs will disappear.

But amidst this upheaval in the relationship between jobs and society, the conversation has progressed little beyond conservatives and liberals attacking the straw men of each other's characterized extremes: the liberals, we're told, want socialism where no one has to work and money grows on trees; and their conservative counterparts want pure dog-eat-dog capitalism, the underprivileged be damned. These imagined but diametrically opposed worldviews were typified recently by a Jonah Goldberg article,  "Define Income Inequality" (January, 2014):

"Also, income inequality can be a benign symptom. For instance, if everyone is getting richer, who cares if the rich are getting richer faster? ... Dasani is certainly a victim, but is the system really to blame? Dasani's biological father is utterly absent. Her mother, Chanel, a drug addict and daughter of a drug addict. ... Family structure and the values that go into successful child rearing have a stronger correlation with economic mobility than income inequality. America's system is hardly flawless. But if Dasani were born to the same parents in a socialist country, she'd still be a victim -- of bad parents." 

To conservatives at Goldberg's extreme, there is no income inequality problem, just drug-addicted, bad parents. And he simultaneously paints for us the imagined extreme of what he would have us believe are his opponents' flawed stance: inequality and capitalism are the socialist devil, and it's all America's fault. Simplicity and arrogance reign... and the problem and poor thinking get passed on to you, the next generation. 

Contrary to such extreme characterizations, reasonable people seem to recognize that balance has always been the answer. Capitalism and its bottomless ocean of short-term self-interest is the engine that has enabled America to reach its unprecedented height. But social systems, with their long-term and shared benefits have provided the scaffolding on which we climbed. Neither is a solution without the other in proper measure. Ultimately all governance consists of balancing short-term and personal interests against long-term and shared interests. Right now, adequate jobs hang in correcting that out-of-kilter balance.

What Is Wealth?

To solve any problem you need an explanation—a mental model—that correctly assesses the circumstances. Let's start by examining the constituents of the problem: wealth and distribution.
Don't let anyone tell you that wealth is complicated to define. It is the sum of the necessities, niceties, and healthiness that a society enjoys. Does an abundance of natural resources constitute wealth? With the possible exception of water and freely growing fruits and vegetables, not exactly. Natural resources are not wealth until you add technology. 

And what about an abundance of hard workers? Can a nation with poor resources make up with hard work what it lacks in resources? Again, not exactly... not in global competitive terms, not without technology. Technology is the ultimate lever in the new equation of wealth. Third world countries can work their peoples' fingers to the bone as many do in clothing manufacturing, and that might make them highly employed, but hardly wealthy. When they start to replace the manual labor with technology, then wealth is produced... and we'd move on to discuss whether that wealth is distributed. Is a nation wealthy if the masses work like slaves and a few enjoy the benefits? That's a decision each of us has to make for ourselves.

Technology

Let's revisit our starting proposition about technology and make the statement a bit more complete: 
Every day, thanks to technology and technology alone, it takes fewer people to produce the same amount of...
  • Goods
  • Services
  • Food 
  • Atmospheric carbon 
  • Insider stock trades 
  • Surveillance and marketing databases 
  • Defenseless victims of violence, whether schoolchildren lined up against their one-room Amish schoolhouse blackboard or grown adults killed by remote-control, drone warcraft 
Yes, we can make more of the good things with less labor—jobs—but we can also produce more of every bad thing, too. Foremost among them, we've had a fleet of hundreds of millions of little carbon-generators running for 100 years now, and they've nearly completed their mission of blanketing the planet with insulation. And we have computers that can trade stocks millions of times per second... for what legitimate purpose? We have every detail of our lives stored in corporate and government databases. And we have guns that can kill whole movie theaters or classrooms full of people in a single moment of rage. (Perhaps you prefer, "Guns don't kill people; technology does.") Motivations and machinations of all sorts are behind these problems, but whether it's hunger, generosity, curiosity, greed, insecurity, or insanity, only technology provides the power that turns motive into big results.

In the Beginning

Let's focus though on jobs. To understand the relationship between jobs and technology you have to study how that relationship evolved. In the hunter-gatherer society, there was one job per family and it was guaranteed for life or starvation, whichever came first. As soon as you could forage, you worked 12-16 hours per day and there was full employment. 

Then someone threw a rock at an animal and technology was invented. It wasn't quite Thomas Edison or Bill Gates but it was a start. Perhaps grandparents could now join the family, thus increasing the number of people supported per job. Spears quickly followed, then light bulbs, steam engines, and the iPhone, dramatically increasing the wealth that a single worker produced. 

When seeds were planted and crops harvested, the wealth really started multiplying and the number of people supported by one worker multiplied with it. Good barterers started to become successful capitalists and the concentration of wealth began an unstoppable progression to the state we see it in today, where Warren Buffet, Sam Walton, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and a few others possess about 25% of our country's wealth. I'm just picking a wild number, but whether my estimate is low or high, the combined concentration and disparity of wealth is greater than it's ever been, and it's only possible because of technology. It estimated that in 1900 an American farmer could feed 25 people; today that number is around 1,000. By a recent account, half of the world's wealth is owned by 85 people.

You Didn't Make That

A recent line of public argument surrounded President Obama's declaring "You didn't make that," referring figuratively to the roads and bridges that support commerce on which the Sam Waltons of the world build their wealth. The vitriol then spewed in both directions as the "S-word"—socialism—was thrown about. But from the dawn of technology we have been on an unstoppable progression toward greater "social goods." School students learn the significance of public and private goods in basic economics classes: Sam Walton couldn't possibly accumulate countless billions without public roads, a federal banking system, public water and health systems, ad infinitum. And if you think it through very carefully, you'll realize there's a physical limit on the amount of wealth that hard work alone can amass. Comparing an average worker who is as proud of his work as most of us, to the super-successful, you will probably conclude that the super-successful person could produce about 10 times the output. But it's preposterous to suggest that Bill Gates worked a million times harder than Average Joe. Yes, he's a hard worker and a genius at business and computers, but the difference is technology, not work. The 85 people mentioned earlier each own as much as 42 million people; do you suggest they worked 42 million times harder?

It's technology that makes it possible to concentrate wealth... like never before. A single online e-commerce system now has the power to make millions of dollars with less investment and labor than in the history of mankind, and by a wide margin. Can we please stop it with the notion that the super rich are so because of hard work?

The converse argument is also made that technology has good effects, distributing wealth and making it possible for more people to access wealth... to get rich. Some refer to this as the "pie getting bigger" or "a rising tide lifts all boats." There can be little question of that, but the catch is in the proportions. 

Technology's power to concentrate wealth is vastly greater than its distributing effect. In fact, this ratio of concentration vs. distribution is the key to understanding our dilemma... and then doing something about it. All of the major institutions and phenomena of modern society have an effect on wealth, distribution, or both. Some increase one or the other; some decrease them. And jobs are almost entirely the result of phenomena that increase distribution. In all probability, the wealth of America is increasing faster (!) than it ever has, but without distribution you don't have a job.

Concentration vs. Distribution

Let's try an exercise. Imagine a pill is invented that stops your hair from growing at whatever length it is when you take the pill. If you think this is wildly preposterous, recall that there is already a chemical that is fairly successful at making hair grow; there's a chance my new pill could be easier to invent than the one for growing hair! Maybe the pill is expensive but eventually the price comes down to a few dollars a year. In 2012 there were about 600,000 people cutting hair in the US. After this pill goes mainstream, what will that number drop to? I'd guess that it will get cut in half... and with it, 300,000 fewer job—incomes—needed. Will the number of dollars spent on hair care be reduced? That's a very different matter that involves the topic of 'budgets.' Some people will continue to spend the same amount of money on their appearance, but it won't necessarily involve labor. It could be hair care products.

Let's try another one. Today I noticed that the gas meter outside my house doesn't have the same electronic box on it that enables the water company to collect meter reading data without people walking around. When the gas company catches up, there go 50,000 more jobs. 

Or consider truck driving. Even if you don't believe that driverless cars will be financially viable in the foreseeable future—they seem to be technically viable already—imagine a new system to replace much of the trucking done today: a new light rail system resembling amusement-park roller coasters could ferry driverless freight modules between and around metropolitan areas. It might be a fraction of the cost of today's trucks and possibly with no pollution, since enough solar energy might be collected on their roofs to counter the much lower friction of their solid plastic wheels. When UPS and Amazon put such a system in place, today's 1.7 million truck driving jobs will be roughly decimated.

Get used to it. The waves will only get more erratic—generally larger—for perhaps another fifty years. Periods of comfort will only be lulls between peaks and troughs. When the dust is finished settling, money that had previously been distributed to "hard working" people will no longer be so, in anywhere near its 1960's, US middle-class proportions... if we continue with our current habits. With this framework, let's examine some of the intermediate factors between where we are and the solutions, and how they affect wealth or distribution.

Growth, Cars, and Houses

Every day in the news we hear our financial report card, announcing whether our economy is growing and how fast. Are we building more houses and how fast? Are we buying enough cars? Is the stock market up or down? Sooner or hopefully not later, it should become clear that we can't build cars and houses fast enough to stop chasing our employment tails. Growth based on endless consumption can't possibly be compatible with, well, with anything. And cars are the worst case, having clearly proven to be the most brilliant machine ever devised, to chase us from the planet. Think about it in these numbers: we've produced about a billion little machines spewing toxins and planet-insulating gasses for a hundred years; trying to undo that damage in a few years is now looking impossible. Even if personal transportation is made cleaner, the manufacturing is still a losing proposition, consuming huge amounts of resources per person. Cars do add some wealth in the form of freedom and job mobility, but as robots take over car manufacturing, its contribution to distributing wealth will diminish. And until the pollution problem is reversed, the negative contribution to long-term wealth is actually immeasurable.

Except for the pollution aspect of automobiles, the equation is identical for houses. Home manufacturing increases the distribution of wealth because it is highly manual. It's probably one of the best activities in that regard. And it increases wealth because it drives the supply side of the supply-and-demand equation up, increasing access to homes. But housing is probably a net loser when you really examine natural resources and overall energy use. It's a cycle that's unsustainable.
Ultimately using 'growth' as both the daily yardstick and ultimate goal of economic health is not merely unsuccessful and unsustainable... growth is the polar opposite of sustainability. With growth as the goal, the cycle simply won't end. What could possibly be the goal… every square foot of habitable land covered with houses and cars? Are we insane, or just collectively dim-witted? 

Healthcare and College

These two aspects of American society are dominating the economic landscape but they're symptoms rather than root causes. And it might surprise you to hear that they are one-in-the-same problem. Healthcare and college education are financial disasters because they are the last two major aspects of our society that cannot be outsourced and off-shored to low-paid people in other countries. So every mistake and subtle corruption of those systems, which we have easily tolerated for the last 50 years, is now staying home to roost… but in a new economy, that now has 50 million underemployed and undereducated people and half our wealth enjoyed by a handful of citizens.

In healthcare we have a system that originally worked fine: an insurance system for catastrophic loss was sponsored by the often-risky workplace and contributed to by nearly everyone. And because our country has been so rich (mostly on oil energy) for the last hundred years, no cost controls were needed in the medical world, and none developed. To understand why none of those circumstances work anymore you must read David Goldhill's September, 2009 article in The Atlantic, "How American Health Care Killed My Father." To paraphrase Goldhill's explanation, we now live to be 100 and healthcare expense is no longer a matter of unexpected catastrophe but routine maintenance. So an insurance model is totally inapplicable. Add to that the fact that medical costs and prices are totally hidden, and inflated prices aren't a surprise—they're a certainty. As for the technology component—the supposedly expensive MRI machines and so on—Goldhill rightly explains that technology isn't the problem; it's a whipping boy… just a symptom of a corrupted pricing model. But technology is responsible for the increased lifespan that is the root cause.

College turns out to be a simpler matter of runaway costs in a world that has no tension between supply and demand. Unlike healthcare, no tectonic plates have shifted underneath college. Instead it's just a world protected from the forces that provide value in every other sector of our economy. Although there are thousands of colleges, they somehow are not really competing on price. Virtually all of the top schools cost $60,000 per year. Instead of applying their immense endowments to lower the cost of attendance, funds are doled out in a secret lottery of standard discounts for good students, disguised as "scholarships." In this upside-down world, parents fill out a form that discloses every financial detail to the vendor. How could prices not increase?

Population

In our original proposition, we left out one item:
Every day it takes fewer people to produce the same amount of… people.
Yes, thanks to technology, we create more people than ever. Infant mortality is lower, more people grow to the age of reproduction, and more people live longer than ever before. Ultimately technology and population are the same problem and inseparable. Because of technology we must decide what is the right number of people for the planet. The number cannot rise indefinitely so when will we deal with it? A more precise framing of the broader problem then, is that it is the relationship between technology and population.

New Thinking

Those are the problems, the root cause, and their relationship. Our current level of problem-solving is limited to repetitive, vile attacks and inane arguments. To climb out of this trench will require better ways of thinking and then the words and behaviors to put that thinking into action.

The first change is to become more rational… but it might not be what you think. Almost every matter of finances seems to mistakenly frame the discussion with what are called absolute numbers. The latest example is the dispute over the debt ceiling, and whether it should be x or y trillion dollars. But there should not be a debate about the debt ceiling every time we run out of money because it should be expressed as a proportion, a ratio (as in 'rational'). The debt ceiling should be a percentage of our government's revenue or perhaps gross domestic product. This same simple-minded flaw hits every front. In the latest battle over Obamacare, people complain about the absolute size of companies that must provide healthcare benefits. If the law used a proportion instead of an absolute number, contribution to the plan would be based on percentages so the arguments, inequities, and loopholes would disappear. The same problem occurs with employee benefits in general. If businesses were required to provide total compensation proportionate to hours worked, rather than an on-off switch tied to some threshold defined as "part-time," then another corruption of our system disappears. The business incentives to make workers part-time would be eliminated.

The next change in thinking is to recognize that all activities are choices between long-term and short-term impacts. The US is apparently about to experience a tremendous energy glut from fracking and horizontal drilling. You probably know of the Marcellus shale in the Appalachian Mountains, with perhaps 500 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. (Can you change that absolute amount to a rational fact… years of US gas consumption? It looks like it might be 20 years' worth.) But not as many people have heard that Williston, North Dakota contains one of the largest oil fields in the world, (NYT, January 31, 2013). Earlier we stated that all governance consists of balancing short-term and personal interests against long-term and shared interests. If we proceed to burn off the Marcellus and Williston fossil fuels as quickly as we've used energy for the last hundred years, we will have a short-term period of unprecedented wealth, and possibly do nothing less than hammer the final nail in the coffin of our offspring… providing that last measure of insulation to Earth's atmosphere that overwhelms our ability to recover soon enough. Whenever you hear a small-thinker say that the energy boom will create wealth, you must ask them to include the words "long-term" or "short-term" to their statement. Long-term it will destroy wealth as never before.

The final aspect of thinking is to evaluate each aspect of society and ask, does it increase or decrease long-term wealth? And does it cause wealth to be more concentrated or distributed? Most activities involve unclear combinations of the two effects, and there is no certainty one way or the other… it boils down to judgment. The only relatively easy choices will be to avoid activities that decrease long term wealth, irrespective of the effect on distribution.

The Logic of Job Creation

There are three basic categories of jobs that can be created: blue collar, white collar, and "no-collar." Blue collar is labor, white collar are the services from retail through law, finance, and medicine. No-collar workers are the people creating the technology and automation that is reducing the number of jobs. Healthcare is interesting because it spans all three, with laborers in the nursing home sector, white collar in the acute care sector, and the no-collar workers of the pharmaceutical and software worlds. Which of the categories should policies attempt to create jobs in? No-collar jobs are probably impossible to forcibly create. Forcibly creating white collar jobs is equivalent to creating busy-work and is almost certain to reduce wealth. Here's an example: pre-tax administrative accounts. The focus of job creation should be solely on blue collar work.

Do This

We now have a platform from which we can view the landscape accurately: rational thinking, long-term focus, and increasing wealth without decreasing distribution. So let's enumerate the specific strategies that must be pursued if young people—and this is only about young people—want jobs.

¶Mitigate the employment shock waves of the upcoming technology tsunamis with laws that balance corporate and personal interests. Plain-and-simple, this means "progressive taxation." And if the concentration of wealth is such that one person possesses the wealth of 42 million people, then the rate of "progression" has to be equivalently steep. Possibly the best approach, more effective than a minimum wage law, is to enact laws that limit top executive pay (total compensation, no-loopholes for stocks) to a multiple of the lowest paid employee. This still allows unabridged capitalism because it does not put an absolute limit on anyone's ability to concentrate wealth; it simply forces them to bring others along with them. Imagine even a multiple limit of 100: if an executive makes $10 million per year, the lowest paid employee would be $100,000. Or how about a hybrid? (Hybrids always win, by the way.) The portion of executive's salary below the 100 multiple is taxed at X percent; that portion of an executive's salary above the 100 multiple is taxed at 2X percent. Now consider non-profit companies, such as the National Football League. To get the benefit of not sharing as much of their revenue with the public as a profit company does, shouldn’t the executive income multiple be lower… perhaps 10 times the lowest paid employee? Shouldn't such a law be easy to enact for non-profits?

¶Enact laws and policies to retain jobs where there is no impact on international competitiveness. Here's an example. New Jersey is one of the few states that mandates that gasoline be pumped by employees of the gas station. This is a perfect example of a job that is now fabricated but can be beneficial, saving consumers from an often inconvenient task… and providing some employment in doing so.
¶In education, there is hope that prices will come down on their own in the future, not precisely from online education but from improvements that software will make in the learning process. There is, however, one big change that can be promoted to push the process along: separate testing and accreditation from instruction. The road will then be cleared for authentic and efficient judging of the best instruction per dollar. And the "fierce engine of the American economy," as I've heard it called, will take over, reestablishing value in all levels education. The best of breed instruction for every topic will be available to every student on the Web, whether Malcolm Khan's videos or crowd-sourced games created by the students themselves. This will happen, and teachers can then concentrate on the hardest parts of the job.

¶Direct one third of the upcoming energy glut to fund sustainable energy infrastructure. Reserve another third for the military for long-term security. The remaining portion can go on the market, but we must put the true, long-term cost of destructive energy (fossil fuels), into the price of those fuels. This is called taxation, no matter what the method, and it is the only solution. The more complicated the method, the more abuse will occur. The current price of oil and gas is artificially low and is preventing us from developing sustainable energy sources.

¶Promote the development of small, modular, nuclear energy. This is the only reasonable strategy to protect the environment from our rapacious consumption of fossil fuels. One reason for this is that every single sustainable source (wind, solar, biofuel) also has its costs to the environment. Once one or two modular nuclear systems are proven, learn from the French who standardize their nuclear operations so they completely control it. The American method—endless variety in the name of competition—is an engineering nightmare that is responsible for the fear-mongering that undermines the adoption of nuclear power.

¶It remains to be seen if healthcare's runaway prices will be solved by Obamacare. If not, consider this alternative. First create laws to force disclosure of prices. Then get employers out of the healthcare mess by not allowing them to directly provide healthcare; legislate that all compensation must be financial. The market will then restore the laws of supply and demand. Finally break healthcare into three parts: preventive, acute, and catastrophic care. Totally nationalize the finances of preventive care, so that general health is improved. (Don't have the government operate the prevention in any way, just handle the taxation and crediting.)  Totally leave acute care to the market, and if Goldhill is right it will settle into high-deductible plans. Use existing national systems to provide catastrophic insurance but allow private markets to compete.

¶Finally, pursue activities and priorities that match population to the wealth of society and the environment's ability to absorb our effluence. And pray that we don't succeed in neutralizing the actual biologic process of aging. Today's problems will pale by comparison.
The wonderful engine of corporate America is only that—our engine. It must be balanced by choices we make: choosing activities that produce truly long-term wealth and avoid its ungoverned concentration, and basing decisions on sustainability instead of growth. If we don’t choose the right balance, technology will drive our children off a cliff.